Understanding the online poker odds
Try to decide how good your hand is at a given moment. Nothing else matters.
Nothing!
- Doyle Bunson
Knowledge of statistcs is key to winning in online poker because of the lack of (if
any) tells.
The most important terms in calculating poker odds are...
Outs : The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.
e.g. "I had four hearts on the turn, so I had only 9 outs (9 more hearts in the deck)
left to finish that flush."
A very handy method to calculate your outs is the "4 and 2 rule"
On the flop count the number of cards left in the deck that will improve your
hand (the outs) and multiply by 4. This is the percentage of hitting your winning
hand by the river (last card dealt)
On the turn count your outs and multiply by 2 and this gives you the percentage of
you hitting your winning hand by the river.
e.g. You have four hearts on the flop, so you had only 9 outs left to finish that flush =
9x4 = 36%(1/3) chance of getting flush by the river.
Pot Odds: The odds you get when comparing the amount in the pot Vs. the amount
of money you have to call.
e.g "There's $200 already in the pot, and i have to call $10 , so my pot odds are
1/20 and say you have a flush draw on the flop, your odds are 1/3, 1/3 is much
higher then 1/20, so calling or raising is a very good idea."
The higher your percentage% chance of winning Vs. the pot odds = the better your
odds of winning.
Calculating final pot odds is known as the implied odds :
Implied Odds: The amount of money you think will be added to the pot in future bets
divided by the amount you have to call. "Since I think these guys are going to call on
the turn and river, my implied odds are ..."
You divide the size of the pot, at the river by the amount you have to put in.
( i.e. the current pot + the amount of money that you think will be added to the pot in
future bets divided by the amount you have to call)
e.g. If you have a 20%(1/5) chance of hitting
The bet into you is $50,
Then to call, the pot at the river will have to be greater than $250
($250 x 1/5 = $50)
If not, fold.
This chart shows the chances of hitting your hand after the flop or the turn. The
more outs you have the better your chances of hitting.
|
